A column from a fledgling web site dedicated to California news, politics, culture, and lifestyle. (www.battlecry-ca.com)
Best wishes,
Mike Forbes
The phrase "October Surprise" was invented on Oct. 2, 1980 by George H. Bush at a campaign appearance in Eugene, Ore. Mr. Bush warned that President Carter might engineer an event that would change the way the electorate viewed the national race because, "When you are a president, you have an ability to shape things to some degree.” <br> <br>
Whether there will be an October Surprise in 2004 remains to be seen. We may even see a November 1st Surprise. Or a 2nd of November Surprise. Or we may see an October Surprise not engineered by the President. <br> <br>
If an October Surprise were to occur, what manifestation is it likely to take? Might it be the announcement that Osama bin Laden has been captured? <br> <br>
Earlier in the year, both left and right-wing ideologues claimed that the U.S. military already had Osama bin Laden on ice, ready to be produced. <br> <br>
Putting that nonsense aside, what are the chances Osama will be taken between now and the election? <br> <br>
The C.I.A. believes bin Laden is in a mountainous area north of the Pakistani city of Quetta. The region is populated with bin Laden supporters and the terrorist leader is estimated to have 50 bodyguards with him at all times. bin Laden and his men sleep in caves. The area is subject to snow storms sweeping 10,000ft-high mountains and buffeted by high winds. There are no roads and donkeys are the preferred mode of transport. <br> <br>
This makes conventional assault- surrounding the area and methodically searching for the terrorist- impossible. The plan to capture bin Laden would depend on a swift, surgical operation. Special Forces troops in Afghanistan await intelligence about bin Laden’s location and the order to snatch him. <br> <br>
Capturing bin Laden would seal the election for Bush. The only problem is no one in the U.S. military knows where to find The World’s Most Wanted Man. <br> <br>
The U.S. hasn’t been able to locate bin Laden since 9/11. Let some simple, extremely unscientific numbers set the odds for bin Laden’s capture between now and the election- 160 weeks since the W.T.C. Bombings without useable intelligence : 1 week remaining before the election. <br> <br>
The far more likely October Surprise is that Al Qaeda will employ the Madrid Strategy, so named for the March 11, 2004 commuter train bombings in Spain that killed 191 people, to turn voters against President Bush. <br> <br>
The Madrid Strategy seeks to pick away at the coalition until it is reduced until only the U.S. remains. The bombings in Spain were clearly intended to coincide with that country’s election season. Al Qaeda’s hopes of turning middle-of-the-road voters against supporting U.S. efforts to stabilize Iraq were realized. The terrorists, heartened by success in Spain, will try their best to strike where Americans will feel it most. <br> <br>
Battle Cry doesn’t shy from making predictions and so far we’re 2-0, but we can’t employ that kind of a hot streak in an arena that deals with domestic terrorism. Instead, Battle Cry will set the odds. <br> <br>
Odds on a domestic terrorist attack before Election Day… 1 : 1. <br> <br>
And if terrorists succeed in killing Americans at home? <br> <br>
Bush would be victorious. <br> <br>
There is little doubt that the Bush Administration, though hamstrung by the lumbering nature of all bureaucracies, has done its best to protect Americans at home and no patriotic American could ever believe that an American leader of either party would allow an attack to occur for political gain. <br> <br>
Americans aren’t appeasers. Blood on American soil would put even “safe” states like California back into contention.<br> <br>
(www.battlecry-ca.com)
Best wishes,
Mike Forbes
The phrase "October Surprise" was invented on Oct. 2, 1980 by George H. Bush at a campaign appearance in Eugene, Ore. Mr. Bush warned that President Carter might engineer an event that would change the way the electorate viewed the national race because, "When you are a president, you have an ability to shape things to some degree.” <br> <br>
Whether there will be an October Surprise in 2004 remains to be seen. We may even see a November 1st Surprise. Or a 2nd of November Surprise. Or we may see an October Surprise not engineered by the President. <br> <br>
If an October Surprise were to occur, what manifestation is it likely to take? Might it be the announcement that Osama bin Laden has been captured? <br> <br>
Earlier in the year, both left and right-wing ideologues claimed that the U.S. military already had Osama bin Laden on ice, ready to be produced. <br> <br>
Putting that nonsense aside, what are the chances Osama will be taken between now and the election? <br> <br>
The C.I.A. believes bin Laden is in a mountainous area north of the Pakistani city of Quetta. The region is populated with bin Laden supporters and the terrorist leader is estimated to have 50 bodyguards with him at all times. bin Laden and his men sleep in caves. The area is subject to snow storms sweeping 10,000ft-high mountains and buffeted by high winds. There are no roads and donkeys are the preferred mode of transport. <br> <br>
This makes conventional assault- surrounding the area and methodically searching for the terrorist- impossible. The plan to capture bin Laden would depend on a swift, surgical operation. Special Forces troops in Afghanistan await intelligence about bin Laden’s location and the order to snatch him. <br> <br>
Capturing bin Laden would seal the election for Bush. The only problem is no one in the U.S. military knows where to find The World’s Most Wanted Man. <br> <br>
The U.S. hasn’t been able to locate bin Laden since 9/11. Let some simple, extremely unscientific numbers set the odds for bin Laden’s capture between now and the election- 160 weeks since the W.T.C. Bombings without useable intelligence : 1 week remaining before the election. <br> <br>
The far more likely October Surprise is that Al Qaeda will employ the Madrid Strategy, so named for the March 11, 2004 commuter train bombings in Spain that killed 191 people, to turn voters against President Bush. <br> <br>
The Madrid Strategy seeks to pick away at the coalition until it is reduced until only the U.S. remains. The bombings in Spain were clearly intended to coincide with that country’s election season. Al Qaeda’s hopes of turning middle-of-the-road voters against supporting U.S. efforts to stabilize Iraq were realized. The terrorists, heartened by success in Spain, will try their best to strike where Americans will feel it most. <br> <br>
Battle Cry doesn’t shy from making predictions and so far we’re 2-0, but we can’t employ that kind of a hot streak in an arena that deals with domestic terrorism. Instead, Battle Cry will set the odds. <br> <br>
Odds on a domestic terrorist attack before Election Day… 1 : 1. <br> <br>
And if terrorists succeed in killing Americans at home? <br> <br>
Bush would be victorious. <br> <br>
There is little doubt that the Bush Administration, though hamstrung by the lumbering nature of all bureaucracies, has done its best to protect Americans at home and no patriotic American could ever believe that an American leader of either party would allow an attack to occur for political gain. <br> <br>
Americans aren’t appeasers. Blood on American soil would put even “safe” states like California back into contention.<br> <br>
(www.battlecry-ca.com)
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